A dominancebased approach to map risks of ecological invasions in the presence of severe uncertainty

Invasive alien species cause significant impacts in agriculture, forestry and the environment, with worldwide economic losses estimated at US $ 1.4 trillion annually, or roughly 5% of the current global economy (Pimentel et al., 2001) and likely to increase in the near future (Perrings et al., 2005; Westphal et al., 2008). In recent decades, quantitative models have become increasingly popular for assessing risks associated with invasive alien organisms (Andersen et al., 2004a; b; Foxcroft Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Great Lakes Forestry Centre, 1219 Queen Street East, Sault Ste. Marie, ON P6A 2E5, Canada, Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, 3041 Cornwallis Road, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709, USA, Department of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of New Hampshire, 114 James Hall, Durham, NH 03824, USA, Canadian Food Inspection Agency, 59 Camelot Drive, Ottawa, ON K1A 0Y9, Canada